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Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town 4-1 Score & Prediction Review
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Oldham Athletic4–1
Cheltenham TownOn these chances Oldham Athletic would usually take 2.0 points and Cheltenham Town 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Oldham Athletic.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town stats: how the match was played
League Two
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Oldham Athletic
Cheltenham Town
5
Shots on target
4
4
Big chances
1
4
Corners
5
0
Yellow cards
2
47%
Possession
53%
Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Oldham Athletic to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Oldham Athletic ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Oldham Athletic 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Oldham Athletic 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,018 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Cheltenham Town 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Oldham Athletic4
Cheltenham Town1Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Oldham Athletic4Cheltenham Town1Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 55% | 45% |
| 39% | 61% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-1
17%
X-X
15%
2-2
13%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
4.8%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town — Recent Form
Cheltenham Town have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Oldham Athletic have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 21st in the table.
Last 5 matches
Cheltenham TownOldham AthleticOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Oldham AthleticCheltenham TownBoth Teams to Score
Oldham AthleticCheltenham TownOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Oldham AthleticCheltenham TownOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Oldham AthleticCheltenham TownFirst Half Result
Oldham AthleticCheltenham TownCorrect Score
Oldham AthleticCheltenham Town