Toluca vs Atlético San Luis 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Toluca drew despite more chances
Toluca1–1
Atlético San LuisOn these chances Toluca would usually take 2.1 points and Atlético San Luis 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Toluca.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Toluca vs Atlético San Luis stats: how the match was played
Liga MX
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Toluca had clearly more shots on target
Toluca
Atlético San Luis
7
Shots on target
5
3
Big chances
0
15
Corners
2
0
Yellow cards
0
70%
Possession
30%
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga MX
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Toluca to win
WrongOur track record
In 618 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.6% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,162 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 941 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
Our model’s pick
Toluca ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Toluca 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,675 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético San Luis 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Toluca vs Atlético San Luis. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Toluca1
Atlético San Luis1Winner
1 67%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
2-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Toluca1Atlético San Luis1Winner
1 67%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
2-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 35% | 65% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 90% | 33% | 67% |
| 49% | 51% | 78% | 22% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 40% | 80% | 20% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
43%
X-1
21%
X-X
10%
2-2
7%
2-X
6%
1-X
4%
X-2
4%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
10.5%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
8.8%
1-1
8.4%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
7.2%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
4.4%
3-2
3.9%
0-0
3.8%
0-1
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis — Recent Form
Atlético San Luis have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table. Toluca have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético San LuisTolucaOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
TolucaAtlético San LuisBoth Teams to Score
TolucaAtlético San LuisOver/Under 2.5 Goals
TolucaAtlético San LuisOver/Under 3.5 Goals
TolucaAtlético San LuisFirst Half Result
TolucaAtlético San LuisCorrect Score
TolucaAtlético San Luis