Home
Leagues
Liga Portugal
Famalicão vs Alverca

Famalicão vs Alverca 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result

Famalicão

1–4

Alverca

1.0Chances (xG)2.4

On these chances Famalicão would usually take 0.6 points and Alverca 2.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Famalicão.

Famalicão −0.6 pts vs chancesAlverca +0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Famalicão vs Alverca stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Alverca had more than twice the shots on target

Famalicão

Alverca

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

64%

Possession

36%

The match between Famalicão and Alverca ended 1-4. Our AI model predicted a Famalicão win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Alverca – Arouca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Famalicão vs Alverca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Famalicão to win

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Famalicão Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Famalicão 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Alverca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alverca 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,570 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Famalicão vs Alverca 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Famalicão vs Alverca. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Famalicão1

Alverca4

Winner

1 50%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Famalicão1

Alverca4

Winner

1 50%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

150%

X27%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	55%	45%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	55%	45%	80%	20%	93%	7%
	43%	57%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	55%	45%
	43%	57%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	93%	7%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

137%

X45%

218%

1st Score

158%

X9%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-X

19%

X-1

18%

2-2

11%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

13.0%

1-0

12.8%

2-0

9.5%

2-1

9.4%

0-0

8.6%

0-1

7.6%

1-2

5.5%

3-0

5.0%

2-2

4.6%

3-1

4.6%

0-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Famalicão vs Alverca — Recent Form

Alverca have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Famalicão have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Alverca

Famalicão

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Famalicão

1/5

Alverca

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Famalicão

1/5

Alverca

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Famalicão

2/5

Alverca

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Famalicão

2/5

Alverca

3/5

First Half Result

Famalicão

3/5

Alverca

2/5

Correct Score

Famalicão

0/5

Alverca

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Alverca – Arouca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).