Le Mans vs Toulouse 0-3 Score & Prediction Review
Ligue 1 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
Le Mans0–3
ToulouseOn these chances Le Mans would usually take 1.2 points and Toulouse 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Toulouse.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Le Mans vs Toulouse stats: how the match was played
Ligue 1
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Toulouse had more than twice the shots on target
Le Mans
Toulouse
1
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
2
2
Corners
2
2
Yellow cards
1
52%
Possession
48%
Le Mans vs Toulouse — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Ligue 1
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Le Mans to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Toulouse to win.
Our track record
In 1,526 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 104 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Le Mans 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Toulouse 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Toulouse 2+ goals.
Our track record
Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Le Mans vs Toulouse 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Le Mans vs Toulouse. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Le Mans0
Toulouse3Winner
12 69%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Le Mans0Toulouse3Winner
12 69%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 35% | 65% | 60% | 40% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 70% | 30% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 67% | 33% |
| 37% | 63% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
X-X
17%
X-1
15%
2-2
14%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.6%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
11.7%
0-1
10.9%
2-1
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Le Mans vs Toulouse — Recent Form
Toulouse have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table. Le Mans have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table.
Last 5 matches
ToulouseLe MansOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ToulouseLe MansBoth Teams to Score
ToulouseLe MansOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ToulouseLe MansOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ToulouseLe MansFirst Half Result
ToulouseLe MansCorrect Score
ToulouseLe Mans