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Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 12)
Lanús2–0
Vélez SarsfieldOn these chances Lanús would usually take 1.8 points and Vélez Sarsfield 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lanús.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield stats: how the match was played
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Lanús had more than twice the shots on target
Lanús
Vélez Sarsfield
6
Shots on target
3
1
Big chances
1
5
Corners
6
2
Yellow cards
3
48%
Possession
52%
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Lanús to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 5,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,156 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 398 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.9% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 1,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 53.9% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).
Our model’s pick
Lanús 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,671 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Vélez Sarsfield 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Lanús2
Vélez Sarsfield0Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 76%
Lanús2Vélez Sarsfield0Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 76%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 40% | 60% | 67% | 33% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 76% | 24% | 94% | 6% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 68% | 32% |
| 45% | 55% | 80% | 20% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
X-X
22%
X-1
18%
2-2
11%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
15.8%
0-0
13.8%
1-1
13.7%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.4%
2-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield — Recent Form
Lanús have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Vélez Sarsfield have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table.
Last 5 matches
LanúsVélez SarsfieldOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
LanúsVélez SarsfieldBoth Teams to Score
LanúsVélez SarsfieldOver/Under 2.5 Goals
LanúsVélez SarsfieldOver/Under 3.5 Goals
LanúsVélez SarsfieldFirst Half Result
LanúsVélez SarsfieldCorrect Score
LanúsVélez Sarsfield