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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2025/2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen

1–1

ArsenalArsenal
0.9Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Bayer 04 Leverkusen would usually take 1.0 points and Arsenal 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Arsenal.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.0 pts vs chancesArsenal −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen had clearly more shots on target

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Arsenal

3

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

2

2

Corners

3

4

Yellow cards

3

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Arsenal ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Arsenal win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Slavia Praha – Arsenal prediction & betting tips (Nov 4, 2026).

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal to win

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Arsenal ahead at half-time.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,675 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Arsenal Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Arsenal 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Champions League - Europe
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen1
ArsenalArsenal1

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

130%
X25%
244%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Bayer 04 Leverkusen37%63%69%31%
Arsenal26%74%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Bayer 04 Leverkusen88%12%96%4%
Arsenal82%18%93%7%

1st Half

130%
X39%
230%

1st Score

146%
X8%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

1-1

22%

X-X

14%

X-1

13%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

0-1

10.7%

1-2

8.8%

1-0

8.0%

0-2

8.0%

0-0

7.6%

2-1

6.8%

2-2

5.0%

2-0

4.7%

1-3

4.0%

0-3

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Slavia Praha – Arsenal prediction & betting tips (Nov 4, 2026).

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