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Villarreal vs Napoli

Villarreal vs Napoli 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)

Fair result

Villarreal

3–1

Napoli

1.4Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Villarreal would usually take 1.5 points and Napoli 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Villarreal.

Villarreal +1.5 pts vs chancesNapoli −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Villarreal vs Napoli stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Villarreal

Napoli

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

53%

Possession

47%

The match between Villarreal and Napoli ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Villarreal win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Villarreal – Paris Saint Germain prediction & betting tips (Nov 3, 2026).

Villarreal vs Napoli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Villarreal to win

Correct

Our model 39%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,098 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,152 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,956 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Villarreal Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Villarreal 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Villarreal 2+ goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,018 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Napoli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Napoli 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Villarreal vs Napoli 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Villarreal vs Napoli. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Villarreal3

Napoli1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Villarreal3

Napoli1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

139%

X26%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	58%	42%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	59%	41%	82%	18%	94%	6%
	29%	71%	61%	39%	84%	16%	94%	6%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	59%	41%
	29%	71%	61%	39%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	94%	6%
	84%	16%	94%	6%

1st Half

133%

X41%

226%

1st Score

154%

X6%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

2-2

18%

X-X

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.7%

1-0

8.4%

2-1

8.3%

1-2

8.1%

0-1

7.7%

0-0

6.1%

2-2

6.0%

2-0

6.0%

0-2

5.5%

3-1

4.0%

1-3

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Villarreal vs Napoli — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Villarreal

3/3

Napoli

3/3

Both Teams to Score

Villarreal

3/3

Napoli

2/3

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Villarreal

3/3

Napoli

2/3

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Villarreal

0/3

Napoli

1/3

First Half Result

Villarreal

1/3

Napoli

1/3

Correct Score

Villarreal

0/3

Napoli

0/3

correct predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Villarreal – Paris Saint Germain prediction & betting tips (Nov 3, 2026).