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Stoke City vs Watford 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2025/2026 (Round 38)

Fair result
Stoke CityStoke City

3–1

WatfordWatford
2.2Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Stoke City would usually take 1.7 points and Watford 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Watford.

Stoke City +1.4 pts vs chancesWatford −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Stoke City vs Watford stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Stoke City had more than twice the shots on target

Stoke City

Watford

12

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

4

6

Corners

7

4

Yellow cards

2

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Stoke City and Watford ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Stoke City win with 36% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stoke City – Bristol City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Stoke City vs Watford — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stoke City to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Watford to win.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 1,525 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Stoke City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stoke City 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,671 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Watford Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Watford 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,272 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Stoke City vs Watford 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Stoke City vs Watford. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Stoke CityStoke City3
WatfordWatford1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

136%
X29%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Stoke City33%67%68%32%
Watford34%66%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Stoke City89%11%97%3%
Watford88%12%97%4%

1st Half

130%
X45%
226%

1st Score

144%
X10%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

2-2

20%

X-X

18%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.2%

1-0

11.6%

0-1

10.8%

0-0

10.0%

1-2

7.7%

2-1

7.5%

2-0

6.5%

0-2

6.1%

2-2

4.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stoke City – Bristol City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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