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Derby County vs Oxford United 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2025/2026 (Round 43)

Fair result
Derby CountyDerby County

1–0

Oxford UnitedOxford United
1.2Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Derby County would usually take 1.7 points and Oxford United 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Derby County.

Derby County +1.3 pts vs chancesOxford United −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Derby County vs Oxford United stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Derby County had more than twice the shots on target

Derby County

Oxford United

2

Shots on target

0

1

Big chances

1

7

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

2

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Derby County and Oxford United ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Derby County win with 54% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Queens Park Rangers – Derby County prediction & betting tips (Oct 14, 2026).

Derby County vs Oxford United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Derby County to win

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,108 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,647 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,623 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Derby County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Derby County 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,784 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Oxford United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Oxford United 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Derby County vs Oxford United 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Derby County vs Oxford United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Derby CountyDerby County1
Oxford UnitedOxford United0

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

154%
X26%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Derby County21%79%54%46%
Oxford United46%54%80%20%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Derby County79%21%93%7%
Oxford United95%5%99%1%

1st Half

139%
X44%
217%

1st Score

162%
X9%
229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

19%

X-X

17%

2-2

9%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

13.9%

1-1

12.2%

2-0

10.4%

2-1

9.7%

0-0

8.7%

0-1

7.2%

1-2

5.2%

3-0

5.2%

3-1

4.9%

2-2

4.2%

0-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Queens Park Rangers – Derby County prediction & betting tips (Oct 14, 2026).

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