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Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Smash-and-grab

West Bromwich Albion won with less than half the chances

Derby CountyDerby County

0–1

West Bromwich AlbionWest Bromwich Albion
1.3Chances (xG)0.3

On these chances Derby County would usually take 2.1 points and West Bromwich Albion 0.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: West Bromwich Albion.

Derby County −2.1 pts vs chancesWest Bromwich Albion +2.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Derby County had more than twice the shots on target

Derby County

West Bromwich Albion

3

Shots on target

1

2

Big chances

1

11

Corners

3

0

Yellow cards

3

0

Red cards

1

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Derby County and West Bromwich Albion ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Derby County win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sheffield United – Derby County prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Derby County to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: West Bromwich Albion to win.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 27%

Our track record

In 1,525 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Derby County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Derby County 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

West Bromwich Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

West Bromwich Albion 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Derby CountyDerby County0
West Bromwich AlbionWest Bromwich Albion1

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

138%
X27%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Derby County29%71%63%37%
West Bromwich Albion32%68%65%35%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Derby County85%15%95%5%
West Bromwich Albion87%13%96%4%

1st Half

129%
X43%
228%

1st Score

146%
X8%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

21%

1-1

20%

X-X

17%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.3%

1-0

9.9%

0-1

9.2%

2-1

8.5%

1-2

8.0%

0-0

8.0%

2-0

6.3%

0-2

5.7%

2-2

5.5%

3-1

3.7%

1-3

3.3%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sheffield United – Derby County prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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