Motor Lublin vs Pogoń Szczecin 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Ekstraklasa - Season 2025/2026 (Round 19)
Motor Lublin2–1
Pogoń SzczecinOn these chances Motor Lublin would usually take 1.4 points and Pogoń Szczecin 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Pogoń Szczecin.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Motor Lublin vs Pogoń Szczecin stats: how the match was played
Ekstraklasa
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Motor Lublin had clearly more shots on target
Motor Lublin
Pogoń Szczecin
7
Shots on target
4
5
Big chances
2
3
Corners
6
2
Yellow cards
3
41%
Possession
59%
Motor Lublin vs Pogoń Szczecin — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Ekstraklasa
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Motor Lublin to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Pogoń Szczecin to win.
Our track record
In 1,028 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,563 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,212 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,311 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,586 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Motor Lublin 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,751 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Pogoń Szczecin 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,640 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Motor Lublin vs Pogoń Szczecin 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Motor Lublin vs Pogoń Szczecin. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Motor Lublin2
Pogoń Szczecin1Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Motor Lublin2Pogoń Szczecin1Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 42% | 58% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 54% | 46% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 53% | 47% |
| 32% | 68% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
2-2
18%
X-1
16%
X-X
15%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
6.6%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.4%
3-1
5.2%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
3.7%
3-0
3.3%
1-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score