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Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 27)

Fair result
Atlético MadridAtlético Madrid

3–2

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
2.8Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Atlético Madrid would usually take 2.6 points and Real Sociedad 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Madrid.

Atlético Madrid +0.4 pts vs chancesReal Sociedad −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Atlético Madrid had more than twice the shots on target

Atlético Madrid

Real Sociedad

9

Shots on target

3

6

Big chances

0

8

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

1

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Atlético Madrid win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Madrid – Deportivo La Coruña prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Madrid to win

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,314 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 3,954 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Madrid ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,666 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Atlético Madrid Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Madrid 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,474 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Real Sociedad Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Sociedad 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
Atlético MadridAtlético Madrid3
Real SociedadReal Sociedad2

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

159%
X22%
219%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Atlético Madrid16%84%44%56%
Real Sociedad45%55%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Atlético Madrid71%29%88%12%
Real Sociedad93%7%98%2%

1st Half

144%
X37%
219%

1st Score

161%
X6%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

17%

X-X

13%

2-2

10%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

10.9%

1-1

10.5%

2-1

10.4%

2-0

9.9%

3-0

6.3%

3-1

6.2%

0-0

5.6%

0-1

5.2%

1-2

5.0%

2-2

4.9%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Madrid – Deportivo La Coruña prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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