Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid 1-2 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Deportivo Alavés1–2
Atlético MadridOn these chances Deportivo Alavés would usually take 1.1 points and Atlético Madrid 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Madrid.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Atlético Madrid had more than twice the shots on target
Deportivo Alavés
Atlético Madrid
3
Shots on target
7
1
Big chances
2
0
Corners
10
0
Yellow cards
3
1
Red cards
0
33%
Possession
68%
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Atlético Madrid to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,948 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Deportivo Alavés 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,674 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Madrid 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atlético Madrid 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Deportivo Alavés1
Atlético Madrid2Winner
X2 70%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Deportivo Alavés1Atlético Madrid2Winner
X2 70%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 68% | 32% |
| 24% | 76% | 56% | 44% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
| 80% | 20% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
20%
2-2
19%
X-X
17%
X-1
14%
X-2
14%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.1%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.2%
0-0
6.8%
2-2
5.7%
1-3
4.6%
2-0
4.5%
0-3
4.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid — Recent Form
Atlético Madrid have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Deportivo Alavés have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético MadridDeportivo AlavésOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Deportivo AlavésAtlético MadridBoth Teams to Score
Deportivo AlavésAtlético MadridOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Deportivo AlavésAtlético MadridOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Deportivo AlavésAtlético MadridFirst Half Result
Deportivo AlavésAtlético MadridCorrect Score
Deportivo AlavésAtlético Madrid