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Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Real Madrid vs Villarreal 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result

Real Madrid

1–0

Villarreal

1.4Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Real Madrid would usually take 1.5 points and Villarreal 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Real Madrid.

Real Madrid +1.5 pts vs chancesVillarreal −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Real Madrid vs Villarreal stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Real Madrid

Villarreal

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Real Madrid and Villarreal ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Real Madrid win with 65% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Valencia – Villarreal prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Real Madrid vs Villarreal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Madrid to win

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 1,055 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.8% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 3,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 256 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Madrid ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 4,243 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Real Madrid Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Madrid 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Villarreal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Villarreal 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,578 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Real Madrid vs Villarreal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

La Liga - Spain

Real Madrid1

Villarreal0

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

2-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

· FT

La Liga - Spain

Real Madrid1

Villarreal0

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

2-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

Full Time

165%

X19%

216%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	37%	63%	48%	52%	72%	28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	37%	63%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	48%	52%	72%	28%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	12%	88%	36%	64%	63%	37%	82%	18%
	48%	52%	77%	24%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	12%	88%	36%	64%
	48%	52%	77%	24%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	63%	37%	82%	18%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

148%

X35%

217%

1st Score

164%

X4%

232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

20%

X-X

10%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-0

9.9%

1-0

9.5%

2-1

9.4%

1-1

8.4%

3-0

6.8%

3-1

6.6%

2-2

5.3%

3-2

4.3%

0-0

4.1%

1-2

4.0%

0-1

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Real Madrid vs Villarreal — Recent Form

Real Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Villarreal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Real Madrid

Villarreal

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Real Madrid

4/5

Villarreal

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Real Madrid

3/5

Villarreal

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Real Madrid

4/5

Villarreal

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Real Madrid

2/5

Villarreal

3/5

First Half Result

Real Madrid

4/5

Villarreal

1/5

Correct Score

Real Madrid

0/5

Villarreal

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Valencia – Villarreal prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).