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  4. AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic

AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Smash-and-grab

AFC Wimbledon won with fewer chances than Wigan Athletic

AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon

1–0

Wigan AthleticWigan Athletic
1.1Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances AFC Wimbledon would usually take 0.8 points and Wigan Athletic 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Wigan Athletic.

AFC Wimbledon +2.2 pts vs chancesWigan Athletic −2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Wigan Athletic had more than twice the shots on target

AFC Wimbledon

Wigan Athletic

2

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

5

6

Corners

8

5

Yellow cards

3

43%

Possession

57%

The match between AFC Wimbledon and Wigan Athletic ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a AFC Wimbledon win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wigan Athletic – Mansfield Town prediction & betting tips (Nov 3, 2026).

AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AFC Wimbledon to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Wigan Athletic to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,168 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 4,585 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 4,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

AFC Wimbledon Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AFC Wimbledon 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Wigan Athletic Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Wigan Athletic 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,332 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League One - England
AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon1
Wigan AthleticWigan Athletic0

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

140%
X28%
232%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
AFC Wimbledon29%71%62%38%
Wigan Athletic34%66%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
AFC Wimbledon85%15%95%5%
Wigan Athletic89%11%96%4%

1st Half

127%
X48%
225%

1st Score

149%
X9%
242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

20%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.6%

1-0

10.5%

0-1

9.3%

0-0

8.9%

2-1

8.7%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

6.8%

0-2

5.3%

2-2

5.2%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wigan Athletic – Mansfield Town prediction & betting tips (Nov 3, 2026).

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