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Crawley Town vs Newport County

Crawley Town vs Newport County 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2025/2026 (Round 2)

Smash-and-grab

Newport County won with less than half the chances

Crawley Town

1–2

Newport County

1.7Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Crawley Town would usually take 2.0 points and Newport County 0.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Crawley Town.

Crawley Town −2.0 pts vs chancesNewport County +2.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Crawley Town vs Newport County stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Crawley Town had more than twice the shots on target

Crawley Town

Newport County

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Crawley Town and Newport County ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Crawley Town win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cheltenham Town – Newport County prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Crawley Town vs Newport County — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crawley Town to win

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 2,468 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Crawley Town ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,223 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Crawley Town Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crawley Town 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Crawley Town 2+ goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Newport County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newport County 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,574 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Crawley Town vs Newport County 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Crawley Town vs Newport County. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Crawley Town1

Newport County2

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

League Two - England

Crawley Town1

Newport County2

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

153%

X24%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%	62%	38%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	50%	50%	76%	24%	91%	9%
	43%	57%	76%	24%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	50%	50%
	43%	57%	76%	24%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	91%	9%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

134%

X43%

223%

1st Score

153%

X7%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

16%

X-X

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.6%

1-0

11.4%

2-1

9.8%

2-0

9.7%

0-0

6.9%

0-1

6.7%

1-2

5.8%

3-0

5.7%

3-1

5.2%

2-2

4.9%

0-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cheltenham Town – Newport County prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).