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Oldham Athletic vs Grimsby Town 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2025/2026 (Round 37)

Fair result
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic

1–0

Grimsby TownGrimsby Town
1.0Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Oldham Athletic would usually take 1.6 points and Grimsby Town 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Oldham Athletic.

Oldham Athletic +1.4 pts vs chancesGrimsby Town −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Oldham Athletic vs Grimsby Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Oldham Athletic

Grimsby Town

1

Shots on target

1

3

Big chances

1

3

Corners

4

3

Yellow cards

2

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Oldham Athletic and Grimsby Town ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Oldham Athletic win with 36% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Oldham Athletic vs Grimsby Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Oldham Athletic to win

Correct
Our model 37%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,082 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,410 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,624 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Oldham Athletic Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Oldham Athletic 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,677 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Grimsby Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grimsby Town 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,236 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Oldham Athletic vs Grimsby Town 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Oldham Athletic vs Grimsby Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League Two - England
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic1
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town0

Winner

12 72%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

136%
X28%
236%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Oldham Athletic31%69%65%35%
Grimsby Town31%69%66%34%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Oldham Athletic87%13%96%4%
Grimsby Town87%13%96%4%

1st Half

128%
X44%
228%

1st Score

144%
X9%
247%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

20%

1-1

19%

X-X

19%

X-1

13%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.2%

1-0

10.3%

0-1

10.0%

0-0

8.5%

2-1

8.3%

1-2

8.0%

2-0

6.3%

0-2

6.0%

2-2

5.2%

3-1

3.3%

1-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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