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Tigres UANL vs Toluca

Tigres UANL vs Toluca 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Fair result

Tigres UANL

3–2

Toluca

2.3Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Tigres UANL would usually take 1.7 points and Toluca 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Toluca.

Tigres UANL +1.3 pts vs chancesToluca −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Tigres UANL vs Toluca stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Tigres UANL had clearly more shots on target

Tigres UANL

Toluca

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

30%

Possession

70%

The match between Tigres UANL and Toluca ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Tigres UANL win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: León – Toluca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Tigres UANL vs Toluca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Toluca to win.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 1,058 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 4,243 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Tigres UANL Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Toluca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toluca 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,274 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Tigres UANL vs Toluca 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tigres UANL vs Toluca. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Tigres UANL3

Toluca2

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Tigres UANL3

Toluca2

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

142%

X27%

231%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%	63%	37%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	60%	40%	84%	16%	95%	5%
	35%	65%	68%	32%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	60%	40%
	35%	65%	68%	32%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	95%	5%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

131%

X47%

222%

1st Score

153%

X9%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-1

17%

X-X

17%

2-2

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.0%

1-0

10.9%

2-1

9.0%

0-0

8.5%

0-1

8.3%

2-0

7.3%

1-2

7.1%

2-2

5.1%

0-2

4.7%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Tigres UANL vs Toluca — Recent Form

Tigres UANL have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table. Toluca have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Tigres UANL

Toluca

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Tigres UANL

2/5

Toluca

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Tigres UANL

4/5

Toluca

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Tigres UANL

1/5

Toluca

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Tigres UANL

4/5

Toluca

1/5

First Half Result

Tigres UANL

1/5

Toluca

1/5

Correct Score

Tigres UANL

2/5

Toluca

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: León – Toluca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).