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Arouca vs Moreirense 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
AroucaArouca

4–0

MoreirenseMoreirense
1.7Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Arouca would usually take 2.1 points and Moreirense 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Arouca.

Arouca +0.9 pts vs chancesMoreirense −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Arouca vs Moreirense stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Arouca had more than twice the shots on target

Arouca

Moreirense

6

Shots on target

1

4

Big chances

2

5

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

4

51%

Possession

50%

The match between Arouca and Moreirense ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Arouca win with 44% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Alverca – Arouca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Arouca vs Moreirense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arouca to win

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,152 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 72%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 49%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Arouca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arouca 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Moreirense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Moreirense 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,272 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Arouca vs Moreirense 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Arouca vs Moreirense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Portugal - Portugal
AroucaArouca4
MoreirenseMoreirense0

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

144%
X27%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Arouca25%75%57%43%
Moreirense35%65%69%31%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Arouca82%18%94%6%
Moreirense89%11%97%3%

1st Half

127%
X49%
224%

1st Score

149%
X8%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

20%

X-1

16%

2-2

16%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

1-0

10.2%

2-1

9.0%

0-1

7.9%

0-0

7.8%

2-0

7.4%

1-2

7.1%

2-2

5.6%

0-2

4.6%

3-1

4.5%

3-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Alverca – Arouca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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