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Südtirol vs Spezia 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
SüdtirolSüdtirol

2–1

SpeziaSpezia
0.9Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Südtirol would usually take 1.0 points and Spezia 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Südtirol.

Südtirol +2.0 pts vs chancesSpezia −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Südtirol vs Spezia stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Südtirol

Spezia

4

Shots on target

3

0

Big chances

4

3

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

2

39%

Possession

62%

The match between Südtirol and Spezia ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Spezia win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Südtirol – Sampdoria prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Südtirol vs Spezia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spezia to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Südtirol to win.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 26%

Our track record

In 1,527 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 546 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 65%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,246 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Südtirol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Südtirol 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 75%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,584 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.9% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Spezia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spezia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,284 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Südtirol vs Spezia 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Südtirol vs Spezia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
SüdtirolSüdtirol2
SpeziaSpezia1

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

0-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

131%
X31%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT38%62%65%35%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT73%27%92%8%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Südtirol39%61%75%25%
Spezia33%67%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Südtirol92%8%98%2%
Spezia90%10%97%3%

1st Half

127%
X48%
225%

1st Score

145%
X13%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

20%

1-1

19%

2-2

18%

X-2

15%

X-1

13%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

14.0%

1-1

13.9%

0-0

12.5%

1-0

11.6%

1-2

7.4%

0-2

7.3%

2-1

6.5%

2-0

5.4%

2-2

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Südtirol – Sampdoria prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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