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Boca Juniors vs Newell's Old Boys 2-0 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 3)
Boca Juniors2–0
Newell's Old BoysOn these chances Boca Juniors would usually take 2.0 points and Newell's Old Boys 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Boca Juniors.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Boca Juniors vs Newell's Old Boys stats: how the match was played
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Boca Juniors had more than twice the shots on target
Boca Juniors
Newell's Old Boys
5
Shots on target
1
2
Big chances
2
2
Corners
1
3
Yellow cards
4
60%
Possession
40%
Boca Juniors vs Newell's Old Boys — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Boca Juniors to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,057 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Boca Juniors ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 540 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Boca Juniors 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Boca Juniors 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Newell's Old Boys 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Boca Juniors vs Newell's Old Boys 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Boca Juniors vs Newell's Old Boys. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Boca Juniors2
Newell's Old Boys0Winner
1 62%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 17%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Boca Juniors2Newell's Old Boys0Winner
1 62%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 17%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 51% | 49% |
| 54% | 46% | 86% | 14% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 92% | 8% |
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
34%
X-1
26%
X-X
16%
2-2
7%
X-2
6%
2-X
4%
1-X
3%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
17.4%
2-0
12.5%
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.7%
3-0
7.5%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
4.8%
1-2
3.8%
2-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score