Instituto vs Lanús 2-2 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 3)
Instituto2–2
LanúsOn these chances Instituto would usually take 1.8 points and Lanús 1.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Lanús.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Instituto vs Lanús stats: how the match was played
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Lanús had clearly more shots on target
Instituto
Lanús
4
Shots on target
7
3
Big chances
2
3
Corners
3
3
Yellow cards
3
49%
Possession
51%
Instituto vs Lanús — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Instituto to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Lanús to win.
Our track record
In 1,498 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 2,404 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,117 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 392 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.8% of the time (bookmakers said 86.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,221 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.3% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).
Our model’s pick
Instituto 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,561 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.4% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Our model’s pick
Lanús 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Instituto vs Lanús 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Instituto vs Lanús. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Instituto2
Lanús2Winner
12 69%
BTTS*
No 60%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 76%
Instituto2Lanús2Winner
12 69%
BTTS*
No 60%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 76%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 41% | 59% | 68% | 32% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 76% | 24% | 94% | 6% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 63% | 73% | 27% |
| 40% | 60% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
| 93% | 7% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
X-X
23%
1-1
19%
2-2
16%
X-1
15%
X-2
15%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-0
14.2%
0-0
14.2%
1-1
13.5%
0-1
13.1%
2-0
7.3%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score